CHP 2002
Bob Jackson used
to be a Government Economic Adviser, then an Anglican clergyman, and now works
as Research Missioner for Springboard. His book is based on a careful statistical
analysis of church attendance figures, looking at patterns of growth and
decline in different geographical areas, across church traditions, types
(rural, suburban, urban) and sizes. Bob concludes that numerical decline is not
inevitable because it is not uniform, and looks at some of the growth
strategies adopted by churches of all kinds which have succeeded in bucking the
general trend. The book is readable, practical and immensely encouraging – it
isn’t rocket science! is perhaps the phrase which
best summarises Bob’s findings, and many of the chapters end with a page of
practical steps a church can consider. Essential reading for
everyone struggling with the question of where to go from here.
1. Facing the truth
A down-to-earth beginning: ‘this book should not be read by Anglicans of
a nervous disposition, because it gives the statistical evidence for an
unpalatable truth: the CofE is in decline, and has been for nearly a century.’
This chapter starts with a detailed statistical summary of the facts – overall
decline over the last 20 years according to every way of measuring it except
financial. This has been going on since 1904; Bob suggests that the
formulation of an anti-decline strategy by the CofE is somewhat overdue, and
points to the example of the Baptist Union who did just this at the start of
the 90s and are now the only growing denomination in
the
v decline is unevenly
spread, with some dioceses showing serious loss and others steady growth
v decline is greatest
amongst young people
v little churches are
more likely to grow than big ones
Grounds for hope: 1 in 12 churches grew by over 10% in the 90s, 1 in 12
by over 60%. The whole diocese of
2. Bums on seats – why they matter
Suggests that although numbers are not God’s measure, we do have to face
up to the basic fact that the Church is shrinking, and not offer ourselves
spurious arguments why this is OK. Often church leaders end up planning for
decline; why not plan for growth instead? He offers the analogy of a person who
is overweight: the options are denial; despair; think about it all the time;
make lifestyle changes. Same with the church.
3. Church growth – mission possible
Society is changing, institutions declining. And yet humanity itself has
not changed, or the gospel. Church growth is seen in the NT as natural – see for
example 1 Corinthians 3, which likens the Church to a garden. Seeds will still
grow: if the plant is in decline, it must be that we need better or different
gardening methods. We must face up to the fact that the shrinking Church is not
the victim of the irrelevant Jesus, Jesus is the
victim of the
4. Bringing growth out of decline
This chapter offers a detailed statistical analysis of all the Anglican
dioceses based on the 1989 English Church Census and the 1998 English Church
Survey. In this period, total Anglican church
attendance declined by 23%. But 22% of churches of all denominations grew by at
least 10%. 7% of Anglican churches grew by at least 60%. The growing churches
were spread over all sizes, traditions and locations. The evidence suggests
they are growing because they have found a spiritual vitality and adopted some
good practices that are available to all.
5. Why should the future be any different?
The Decade of Evangelism made no numerical difference; but it did put
evangelism back on the map. The common perception is that
evangelical-charismatic churches have been doing better than others; but in
fact as all traditions embrace the need for evangelism and growth the
differences are reducing, and detailed research shows that growing churches are
of all types of churchmanship. Growth is possible for every type of church in
every type of place. Insofar as there is a pattern small fellowships, which can
provide the relational emphasis needed in today’s culture, are the ones which
are growing.
6. The Church after Christendom
Christianity no longer provides the framework of our culture, and often
the culture seems hostile to it. Hard though this is, it is not in itself a
reason for decline – the fastest growing churches in the world are in the
places where persecution is the greatest. The church can be countercultural and
survive. But if it is to do so we must rethink the nature of our faith
(spirituality is in, religion is out), we must discern a new role for the
church (servant rather than king), and we must re-imagine the church
(structured around worship, community and mission rather than being an
institution).
7. Using figures
We are good at collecting facts but poor at using them. Examples: a
church which found some services showed declining attendance and replaced them
with new ones at different times of day; a church which found that its best
attended service was the declining one, and reversed this by the appointment of
a children’s coordinator and an Alpha coordinator. Churches which change
service styles and patterns keep their people better than those which don’t.
Deaneries with declining evening congregations can pool resources, closing some
evening services and starting new midweek ones. Dioceses need to look at their
patterns of growth and decline, provide support for declining churches and
identify common factors in growing ones; and they need to join up their
financial and church growth thinking so as to avoid the vicious circle of
parish share default followed by reduction in clergy followed by greater
default. Central bodies need to invest more in research (not less).
8. Nurturing faith
Evangelism is now best understood not as event but as journey, our role
being to stand alongside them as they make it. The typical journey moves from
friendship to belonging to believing to behaving. Churches which run Alpha or
other process evangelism courses for 3+ years tend to grow – responding to a
measured increase in spiritual awareness in the population at large over the
last 15 years.
9. Welcoming all
Churches which engage with a variety of cultures are more likely to grow
than those dominated by one culture or type of person. Ethnically mixed
churches grow better than all white ones, and those with youth provision grow
better than those without; perhaps because these factors reveal willingness to
engage with people ‘not like us’. Churches that find ways of allowing diversity
within their unity do better – eg by having different congregations with
different styles; by having cells which allow everyone a place and a role.
Churches and deaneries can ask which community groups they are not reaching.
10. Taking risks
The institutional church needs to move from being a barrier to radical
change to being an agent of it.
Children – show the greatest decline. Churches can try working together,
or doing children’s work at different times (weeknights seem to work), or
appointing youth workers (they seem to at least prevent decline). Churches
which offer youth worship are twice as likely to grow as those which don’t.
Close links with schools also seem to go with growth.
11. Acting small – whatever your size
One surprising finding is that decline is a particular problem for
larger churches (100-400 adults; bigger ones do OK). Small churches tend to be
in rural communities and depend on lay ministry; and to have a better quality
of relationships. Churches organised into small units in fact do better than
those which aren’t, whatever their size.
Reasons for decline in larger churches include :
lack of close relationships within the fellowship, a consumer attitude, the
more demanding nature of lay leadership, difficulty in integrating newcomers
and noticing absentees, faster turnover in suburban areas, leadership burnout
due to the higher demands, higher number of children, growing beyond the number
of people one minister can pastor (100-150), more conflict (more
relationships!), higher parish shares.
Solutions include : facing the facts,
developing small units of belonging (cells or congregations), organising
pastoral care, having a specialist leadership team, doing few things well,
freeing the vicar to concentrate on oversight of pastoral team and vision
rather than being pastor of the flock, and having the courage to be radical.
Small churches, on the other hand, need to be encouraged and helped to
pool resources and develop lay ministry.
12. Planting churches
In countries where the Church is growing, it is by the planting of small
new fellowships, not by the emergence of superchurches. We need to develop an
active policy of planting churches. Most members of such plants are not
transfers from other churches but lapsed churchgoers or new Christians. The
CofE has planted the equivalent of a whole new diocese in the last 20 years!
Small plant teams do best. Most new churches cater for a niche market which
tends not to be catered for in the traditional church (CofE can now be called
the National Trust at prayer…). Dioceses have a key role.
13. Growing younger
Anglicans are getting older – 1 in 3 is over 65. Only 1 in 6 clergy is
under 40. As it is the younger generations that the Church has been losing,
decline will continue unless they can be won back. Churches grow best when they
have a spread of ages, young and old. To grow younger: look at your age profile
and that of your area; appoint a ‘growing younger’ team; develop contacts in
the community; adjust your social programmes; allow younger people to lead;
employ younger staff. Dioceses also need to have younger peole amongst its
senior staff if they are to be in touch with the needs of young people.
14. Supporting the clergy
Good clergy are necessary for growth – but this research suggests that
clergy skills are as important as clergy talent. In 2000 there were 4 clergy in
the whole CofE under 25.. Younger clergy tend to be
associated with church growth. Incumbencies of 9-13 years are associated with
growth. Gospel enthusiasm is perhaps now more important than pastoral
sensitivity as a selection criterion – we need missionaries not pastors.
Theological colleges should perhaps offer more management skills and less
academic theology. Church growth is not associated with particular theological
colleges or training styles. Ongoing training would seem helpful; shorter
working weeks; pastoral support; better matching of individuals to parishes;
selection of senior clergy on their church growth record not their committee
record..
15. The vital role of the diocese
The ethos, culture, structure and policies of a diocese partly determine
its growth or decline. It has an increasingly important role as the structures
of society change; a diocese can see what is going on better than individual
parish units. It can, for example, change parish boundaries, set up new
non-geographical parishes to cater for the emerging world of relational
community, encourage pioneers, set financial policies
to encourage growth. New forms of church do not ‘emerge’ – they are planned and
planted by visionaries, and dioceses are in a key position to facilitate this.
Example:
16. Renewing the spiritual heart
Spiritual health is the priority. The Holy Spirit is untamed and free.
The Church of the future will need a structure and a culture designed not to
enshrine stability but to handle change.
AJM
Jan 03